The Ledger is a weekly music industry economics newsletter sent to Billboard Pro subscribers. An abridged version of the newsletter is published online.
The high demand for live music is no surprise given how long fans have been away from concerts in 2020 and 2021. But it’s not simple either. Fans struggle with inflation and the high cost of gas and plane tickets. Companies are facing staff shortages and higher costs. Artists flood market venues seeking to recapture lost business. Still, judging by statements from some companies around their latest quarterly results, indications point to a bumper second half.
Live Nation‘s second quarter results showed a company is poised for a banner year. Live Nation has sold more than 100 million tickets to its concerts this year — more than calendar year 2019 — and its 2023 artist pipeline is the largest on record midyear. “Fan demand remains strong, with continued growth in ticket purchases and on-site spending,” the CEO said. Michael Rapino in an Aug. 4 earnings call.
Comments from other executives suggest Live Nation isn’t alone in anticipating a strong second half of the calendar year and beyond.
“There is a lot of demand for live events,” said Lanny Baker, CFO of ticketing platform Eventbrite, during the company’s July 28 earnings conference call. For Eventbrite, live events don’t just mean concerts and music festivals, but also museum events, conferences, beer festivals, fairs, and any other public event that requires tickets. This means he has a broad insight into the public’s appetite for out-of-home entertainment. In the second quarter, Eventbrite saw a 58% increase in search volume and a 37% increase in paid tickets. More than 10 million unique shoppers attended paid events in Q2 – highest level of consumer activity on platform in two years, CEO says Julia Hartz.
Eventbrite believes trends in the first half of the year mean it will have a strong third quarter. “The steady recovery in paid tickets since the Omicron-related downturn earlier this year has been particularly encouraging,” Hartz said. The company is forecasting third-quarter revenue of $65 million to $68 million, which equates to 25% year-over-year revenue growth in the middle of the range.
The Vivid Seats online ticket market also has high expectations. After a strong first half of 2022, Vivid Seats raised the full-year 2022 guidance range on three metrics: gross market order value increased from $2.95 billion to $3.15 billion (from 2 $.8 billion to $3.05 billion); revenues from $540 to $570 million ($520 to $555 million); and Adjusted EBITDA up slightly from $110 million to $117 million (from $110 million to $115 million). “We believe this speaks to the underlying strength of the industry resulting from pent-up consumer demand for live events and our ability to attract more consumers with our differentiated platform,” the CEO said. Stan Chia in an Aug. 9 earnings call. In other words, Vivid Seats believes it has built the right product to benefit from strong market forces.
MSG Entertainment is back to normal after COVID-19 restrictions reduced revenue in 2020 and 2021. David Byrnes, executive vice president and chief financial officer of MSG Entertainment, said on Friday August 19 that the company was “on track to host a record number of concerts during our first quarter” ending September 30 – including residency. of 15 nights of Harry Styles in Madison Square Garden which begins on Saturday. MSG-owned Tao Group Hospitality saw its average check size surpass “pre-pandemic double-digit levels in the quarter,” Byrnes said. Going forward, sponsorship revenue from fiscal year 2023 (July 2022 to June 2023) will exceed pre-pandemic levels in fiscal year 2019.
Inflation, high gas prices, staffing issues and other difficult economic conditions continue to plague the live event industry, of course. But the CFO of Vivid Seats larry fey is optimistic. “Looking forward, we believe the live events industry, with its long-term tailwind, could be somewhat isolated in a recession relative to other consumer discretionary categories,” he said. declared. Fey admitted that Vivid Seats is “not immune to the potential effects of a recession”, but said he believes he will see “the continued strength of the live events category throughout the quarter” – even in a difficult macroeconomic environment.
INVENTORY
Through August 19, the percentage change over the past week and the change since the beginning of the year.
Universal Music Group (AS: UMG): 20.84 euros, -2.8%, -15.9% since the beginning of the year
Spotify (NYSE: SPOT): $111.43, -9.9%, -52.4% YTD
SiriusXM (Nasdaq: SIRI): $6.40, -5.6%, +0.8% YTD
nation live (NYSE: LYV): $94.28, -3.7%, -21.2% YTD
Warner Music Group (Nasdaq: WMG): $28.33, -6.5%, -34.4% YTD
HYBE (KS 352820): KRW 186,500, +1.9%, -46.6% YTD
Tencent Music Entertainment (NYSE: TME): $4.46, +1.1%, -34.9% YTD
cloud music (HKE: 9899): 70.20 HKD, +1.2%, -55.3% YTD
Anghami (Nasdaq: ANGH): $3.12, +7.2%, -69.3% YTD
Composite NYSE: 15,588.32, -1.4%, -9.2% since the beginning of the year
Nasdaq: 12,705.22, -2.6%, -18.8% since the beginning of the year
S&P500: 4,228.48, -1.2%, -11.3% since the beginning of the year
